Growth and Decline in IT Job Market Size related the number of full employment states according to Janco’s analysis
Janco adds to its IT Job Market size model to include findings from pandemic and recovery process
Janco reports that it has found a direct relationship between the number of states that report full employment (unemployment rates of 3.0% or less) and the number of IT jobs created or lost. This new set of findings will now be included in Janco’s IT Job Market forecasting model.
The CEO of Janco, M. Victor Janulaitis said, “In our analysis of the impact of the pandemic and overall unemployment levels we found that when there is a material shift in the number of full employment states there is a direct relationship between that and both increases and decreases in the number of jobs for IT Professionals. In addition to the most recent events we reviewed, we reviewed the data for the dot com bubble and found the same relationship.” He reinforced, “When there is a shift in the number of full employment states with a shift in the number of states that have high unemployment rates, demand for IT professionals as defined by Janco is directly impacted.”
The CEO added, “We have adjusted the model which we use to forecast IT Job Market growth to take this into account. This data is used by our clients as they forecast and adapt IT spending patterns in the budgetary and operational management of IT. We currently forecast that 99K jobs will be added in 2022. When the next set of BLS is released we will update this forecast.”
IT Job Market will have shrunk by an average of 4,900 jobs each month in CY 2024
There are approximately 58K unemployed IT Professionals. The IT job market shrank by over 48,600 jobs in CY 2023. Overall that is a flattening of the long-term growth rate pattern of the IT job market. Based on our data and forecast models, there will be no growth in the IT Job Market in the calendar year 2024.
Data complied and forecast updated by Janco Associates with data as of November 2024
The IT Job Market is just over 3.83 million positions within the US. With those positions classified in four major categories: Computer System Design and Related Services (61% - 2.4 million); Telecommunications (19% - 651K); Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services (10% - 406K); and Other Information Services (10% - 394K). Janco tracks and maintains over 20 years of historical data on the IT Job Market. All of this is used in its modeling and forecasting.
The size of the Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services market has not grown as fast as the Computer systems design and related services portion of the overall IT Job Market
The CEO concluded by saying, “Based on our analysis, the IT job market and opportunities for IT professionals will continue to be positive but not as broad in scope as in the last quarter of 2021. CIOs are still posturing to hire more staff and expand technologies to address blockchain processing and security applications based on market conditions. However recent events, increased energy cost, and the specter of high inflation will have an adverse impact on IT job market growth.”
In addition, “In our 2022 IT Salary Survey, we have found IT salaries for existing IT staff and middle managers increased by just over 2% while new hires in the last quarter of 2021 were paid 5-6% more than existing staff. In conversation with several CIOs, we learned that increases for new hires in the 8-10% range were not uncommon. That salary disparity is a driver of dissatisfaction and an increase in attrition rate among existing employees.”
Janco offers a service for its data which is available via a subscription. The link for a subscription is https://itmanager.substack.com/.
Janco is an international consulting firm that follows issues that concern CIOs and CFOs. The firm publishes a series of IT and business Infrastructure HandiGuides® and Templates including IT Infrastructure Policies and Procedures, Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity Template, Security Template, IT Job Descriptions, and its semi-annual IT Salary Survey.
