IT Job growth will be anemic

by Patrick Thibodeau

Offshoring will limit growth in some occupations, while healthcare IT provides a boost

IT Job growth will be anemic - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts that offshoring will hurt the growth of U.S. programming jobs in over the rest of this decade, though expansion of healthcare IT and mobile networks will in turn increase demand for software developrs, support technicians and systems analysts.

By 2020, employment in all computer occupations is expected to increase by 22%, but some IT fields will fare better than others, according to the BLS biennial update of employment projections.

Demand for software developrs will be the strongest in this period, with increases ranging from 28% to 32%, depending on the type of software development.

The agency's forecasts, particularly for technology-related jobs, are often controversial because they can't account for rapid market changes and tech disruptions. But its estimates are often cited in various policy debates on issues ranging from education to immigration.

The IT employment growth rate projected by the BLS was characterized as "anemic" by Victor Janulaitis, CEO of Janco Associates, a research firm that analyzes IT wage and employment trends.

"When you consider the overall demand for systems and applications in high-growth markets like China and India, [the BLS projections] mean the U.S. will be doing a diminishing portion of the development and implementation work," said Janulaitis. "If that's the case, the U.S. will no longer be the leader in IT.

"The BLS projections are a bad sign for the U.S. IT graduates from universities. Those numbers do not cover the net growth necessary to give all of the graduates jobs," Janulaitis added.

Job growth 10 year forecast

Job title	May 2010 employment	2020 jobs forecast	Job growth 10 year forecast	Pct 10 year job growth forecast
Software developrs, systems software	392,300	519,400	127,100	32%
Database administrators	110,800	144,800	34,000	31%
Network & computer system admins	347,300	443,800	96,500	28%
Software developrs, applications	520,800	664,500	143,700	28%
Computer systems analyst	544,400	664,800	120,400	22%
Information Security Analysts, Web developrs, and Computer Network Architects	302,300	367,900	65,600	22%
Computer & information systems managers	307,900	363,700	55,800	18%
Computer support specialists	607,100	717,100	110,000	18%
Computer programmers	363,100	406,800	43,700	12%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook

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