Janco forecasts 196K New IT Jobs Will be Created in CY 2022
Growth of IT Job Market slows from red hot to robust
Janco forecasts that over 196K new IT Jobs will be added by the end of the year
Park City, UT – Janco Associates, Inc. – Janco reports that in the first half of 2022 115K new jobs for IT Pros were added. Even with inflation, high energy costs, and the invasion of Ukraine, IT hiring continued at a record-setting pace. There is some slowing in hiring as fears of a significant downturn or recession are on the horizon. This is making the budgeting process for 2023 more complex for enterprises of all sizes.
According to the latest BLS data, analyzed by Janco, there are now 3.92 million jobs for IT Professionals in the US. For 24 months in a row, there has been an increase in the number of jobs added to the IT job market. Janco sees this trend continuing.
Janco has updated its forecast for IT job market growth to 196,000 new jobs to be created in 2022. That will be less growth than happened in 2021.
The CEO of Janco, M. Victor Janulaitis said, “In an analysis of the latest BLS data we have found the number of jobs created for IT professionals continues to grow. However, there are some clouds for IT pros' job prospects six to twelve months in the future.” He reinforced, “The primary driver is inflation and high energy costs which is causing concerns that the economy will slow later in the year and potentially have an extended recession in 2023.”
IT Job Market Forecast - September 2023
The size of the Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services market has not grown as fast as the Computer systems design and related services portion of the overall IT Job Market
He said, “Inflation is real and salaries for new hires are higher – we estimate on average 5-6% salary offers above existing pay grades are needed to attract the best IT candidates. Salary compression is occurring with new employees being paid more than existing employees. That does impact existing employee satisfaction and results in higher attrition rates. The challenge CIOs face will be how to keep the balance between the existing budget, providing salary increases to existing employees that address inflation and higher commuting costs, and having sufficient resources available to achieve the enterprise’s technology and bottom line objectives.“
The CEO added, “In our Mid Year 2022 IT Salary Survey, we have found IT salaries for existing IT staff and middle managers increased by just under 3% while new hires were paid 5-6% more than existing staff. In conversation with several CIOs, we learned that starting pay rates for new hires in the 8-10% range were not uncommon. That salary disparity is a driver of dissatisfaction and an increase in attrition rate among existing employees.”
IT Job Market Change - October 2023
IT Job Market shrinks by 9,300 jobs YTD
Analysis shows that IT Job Market has shrunk in size. This is a sign that the downturn / recession has hit IT.
Janulaitis said, “CIOs and CFOs now are more cautious than they were in the first quarter. CIOs do not have a clear understanding of how a downturn will impact their bottom line. Most still are hiring but at a slower pace. Some companies have stopped hiring and started laying off employees. With all that, the IT job market remains tight with an average of 200,000 IT professionals jobs that are not filled due to a lack of qualified candidates. If there is a major downturn many companies will choose to not fill those new open positions. That should be enough of a buffer to keep hiring of IT pros on a positive track.”
Job Openings for IT Professionals
Major pull back of the number of excess jobs for IT Pros occurred in the 4th quarter of 2022 and continued through June of 2023 - economic slowing and resulting layoffs have impact on number of unfilled jobs available for IT Professionals. In June the number of unfilled job for IT Professionals fell to 98K from 123K - 25%!.
In September there were 106K unemployed IT Professionals.
Janco offers a service for its data which is available via a subscription. The link for a subscription is https://itmanager.substack.com/.
Janco is an international consulting firm that follows issues that concern CIOs and CFOs. The firm publishes a series of IT and business Infrastructure HandiGuides® and Templates including IT Infrastructure Policies and Procedures, Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity Template, Security Template, IT Job Descriptions, and its semi-annual IT Salary Survey.