BLS Data Accuracy Questioned
Accuracy of data reported by BLS questioned after 818K adjustments
The BLS data over the last few years has been adjusted more than ever. This week the BLS released new numbers on the total number of jobs created by reducing the number of jobs jobs by 818,000 jobs.
IT Job Market Size History
Historic IT Job Market Size - 4.17 Million Employed as IT Pros
This is not the original data that was published.
It has been updated with data complied by Janco Associates with data as of Octoberr 2024.
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These charts are before the adjustments that the BLS made. We will be updating these charts as this new data is provided in more detail.
Our data estimates that unemployment in IT occupations is close to 6%, if not higher. The overall unemployment rate across all occupations stands at 4.3%. The data we have as of early August is depicted in the chart below.
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The government's IT Job Market -- including software developers, data analysts, and people in media and film, among other occupations -- was the most affected, showing a 2.3% decrease, equivalent to 68,000 jobs lost. According to the BLS released Friday, the professional and business services sector experienced the largest absolute decline, with a loss of 358,000 jobs, or 1.6% of the previous estimate.
IT Pros are impacted by more than half of the overall downward revision. Major significant employers in high-tech fields, including computer system designers, data scientists, and other technology-related positions are continuing to reduce the number of IT Pros employed.
Major Lay-offs continue – excluded from the adjustment
The BLS revision reflects cumulative adjustments to job growth estimates from March 2023 to March 2024. The period means the data does not include recent cuts, such as Cisco's reduction of over 6,000 jobs, UKG's 2,000 cuts, the layoff of more than 1,000 employees in General Motors' software and services division -- first reported by CNBC -- and Dell's layoff.
This chart also is before the recent BLS adjustments.
The BLS also released county-level employment data Friday, which could provide additional insight into the IT job market. The BLS estimated overall employment in San Francisco across all occupations declined by 2.1% from March 2023 to March 2024. At the same time, average weekly wages in the area increased by 9.2%. In Silicon Valley's Santa Clara County, wages rose by 14.6%.
Based on our data, in the San Francisco job market many entry- and mid-level IT jobs have disappeared from the Bay Area. What is left are positions for higher-level IT professionals who can afford to live in the Bay Area. Job prospects for IT pros are grim at best unless they have AI or machine learning experience.
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