Increased deficit and taxes will impact IT job market according to Janco

Combination of inflation and potential business downturn will slow IT Job Market growth by 50K to 75K jobs

Park City – –Janco has analyzed the potential impact of the proposed tax plans and estimates that 50,000 to 75,000 IT jobs will be lost if the taxes proposed are passed.

The CEO of Janco Associates, Inc., Mr. M. Victor Janulaitis said, “The proposed increased corporate tax rates, reinstatement of the minimum tax, elimination of expensing investments, elimination of reduced capital gains tax, and higher individual tax rates will slow if not stop investments in IT.  This in turn will slow the expansion of the IT job market. This will start as soon as it looks like the taxes may be passed. If inflation rears its head due to increased deficits there could be a double hit.”

Janulaitis added, “A Rice University study, estimates that the US job market will lose over 1 million jobs due to the proposed taxes.  We agree with their conclusion and estimate that the IT job market will shrink by between 50,000 to 75,000 jobs in 2022 and 2023.  At the same time, there is a potential for a downturn or recession as companies adapt to the new higher taxes.  However, in the next two quarters the IT job market will continue to grow.  Growth will be driven by the re-opening of businesses.  Once re-opening is completed, other long term factors will take hold.  In our opinion that will be in the first quarter of 2022.”

Growth of IT Job Market (updated)

The number of IT jobs not filled now is just over 100K. Janco's initial forecast for the number of new IT jobs to be added in 2023 is between 20K-30K. Overall that is a flattening of the long term growth rate pattern of IT job market.

IT Job Market Forecast

Data complied and forecast updated by Janco Associates with data as of September 2023

The CEO followed up with, “We continue to forecast that close to 100K new IT jobs will be added by the end of the 4th quarter of this year.  CIOs now are no longer in survival mode.  Now they are looking ahead to the post-pandemic operating environment. “

The full analysis can be found at IT Job Market - Read On

IT Job Market Change - August 2023

YTD IT Job Market growth

IT Job market grew by 8,400 YTD in 2023 with economic slowing and major layoffs. Analysis shows that IT Job Market growth has paused and that AI hiring trend has not taken hold as of yet.

He added, "To support CIOs in managing this process, we have just released our Post Pandemic CIO Management Tool Kit. It contains everything that they need to have a set of functioning infrastructure policies, job descriptions, skill set definitions, compensation data, hiring tools, and post pandemic processes including WFH and cloud processing."

IT Management Tool Kit - Read on

Janco is an international consulting firm that follows issues that concern CIOs and CFOs. The firm publishes a series of IT and business Infrastructure HandiGuides® and Templates including IT Infrastructure Policies and Procedures, Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity Template, Security Template, IT Job Descriptions, and its semi-annual IT Salary Survey.