BLS Data Suspect

Janco Reports BLS Sets IT Unemployment Rate at 5.5%

IT job market prospects are tied to overall US national employment -- Janco reports IT Job market shrank by 111,400 in the last 13 months and over 161,000 in the last 24 months

4.03 million individuals are employed as IT Pros in the US

Park City - UT - e-janco.com - Janco reports that, according to the data provided by the BLS, the prospects for new jobs are worsening.  We do this with one caveat about our concern for the quality of the BLS data.  For example, the BLS adjusted down the number of jobs reported for May and June by 13,600 versus an initially reported gain of 1,400 jobs for the same period. Adjustments at those levels of magnitude are not acceptable from any organization. It can only be due to poor data capture, poor infrastructure, incompetence, or political gerrymandering. Janco will be publishing its full set of findings on Substack (https://itmanager.substack.com/).
The CEO of Janco, M. Victor Janulaitis, said, “With the passage of the new budget bill, CFOs and CIOs are more optimistic and are starting to look forward to working on new being 4.0% last month.   The number of unemployed IT Pros is at 143,000, and the number of open IT positions is just under 244,000.” In addition, “In our travels, we have noticed an uptick in retail activity.  Gas prices are lower, and the rate of inflation is around 2% versus the 9% peak several quarters back.”

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The President said, “According to the latest revised data by the BLS, the IT Job Market shrank by 26,500 YTD.  That is after adjusting the May data down by 4,300, June data down by 7,800 jobs, and reporting that 10,300 jobs were lost in July.. That is on top of the adjustments made to May in the June data. Also, deep in their data, the BLS reports there are 244K  open IT positions with an unemployment rate of 5.5% for IT Pros.” Janulaitis added, “We will continue to report the BLS data; however, we are in the process of redoing our IT Job Market forecasting models to consider other public and private data."

BLS Adjustments in June for May

 

BLS Adjustments in July for May and June

BLS decreased the number of jobs for IT Pros for the prior two months

Before adjustments in July

After Adjustments

National Unemployment Rate versus IT Pros Unemployment Rate

In July the BLS reported the National Unemployment Rate was 4.2% and 5.5% for IT Professionals.

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Most of the unfilled positions (244,000) continue to be associated with AI, LLM, Blockchain, and OmniCommerce. IT opportunities will expand in the last two quarters of 2025. Our data shows the positions available will be in SMBs versus larger enterprises, as they prepare for the implementation of the approved federal budget and tariffs. AI is showing its impact in IT as many customer service and monitoring positions are automated.  CIOs we interviewed have expressed a need to hire new staff to meet AI initiatives and the focus on productivity.”

He added, “The IT job market has continued to shrink.  We do not believe that is a long-term trend.  The impact of the new tax laws, job creation in the US due to investments, and tariff revenues.”

He added, “There still are a limited number of IT Pros with working AI and Omni Commerce experience. They continue to be in high demand. IT pros with legacy skills in small markets, such as Nashville and Tulsa, have a difficult time finding positions. Those in large markets like Dallas and New York have more opportunities. From our conversations with HR specialists, we find that approximately 4% to 5% who are out of work are choosing to look outside of the IT field. IT Pros in the middle of their careers, look at AI as a threat to their further employment.”

The CEO added, “The impact of DOGE now is being felt as many contracts for IT Professionals have been put on hold, and government IT pros do not have a clear picture of what the future holds for them. In the first two quarters of 2025, the IT job market shrank slightly  – 1,200 jobs.  The number of unemployed IT professionals rose to remained at 183,000. We believe that many low-skilled, legacy-skilled IT pros, or displaced IT professionals, have stopped looking for jobs in the IT sector.”

IT Job Market Change - July 2025

13 month cummulative job loss 111,800 jobs

Updated with the data from the BLS and Janco Associates Inc as of August 2025

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He added, “There still are a limited number of IT Pros with working AI and Omni Commerce experience.  They continue to be in high demand. IT pros with legacy skills in small markets, such as Nashville and Tulsa, have a difficult time finding positions. Those in large markets like Dallas and New York have more opportunities.  From our conversations with HR specialists, we find that approximately 4% to 5% who are out of work are choosing to look outside of the IT field. IT Pros in the middle of their careers, look at AI as a threat to their further employment.”

The CEO added, “According to the latest BLS data analyzed, there are now approximately 4.04 million jobs for IT Professionals in the US. Economic uncertainty continues to hurt overall IT hiring. Large high-tech firms continue to focus on improving bottom lines and justify investments in AI and LLM solutions.”

The CEO added, “According to the latest BLS data analyzed, there are now approximately 4.04 million jobs for IT Professionals in the US. Economic uncertainty continues to hurt overall IT hiring. Large high-tech firms continue to focus on improving bottom lines and justify investments in AI and LLM solutions.”

IT Job Market Continues to Shrink - AI Impacts IT Pros

There are approximately 140K unemployed IT Professionals. The IT job market shrank by over 200K jobs in the prior 24 months. Overall that is a flattening of the long-term growth rate pattern of the IT job market. Based on our data and forecast models, there will be limited (if any) growth in the IT Job Market in the calendar year 2025.

Data complied and forecast updated by Janco Associates with data as of August 2025

 

Historic IT Job Market Size

Data complied by Janco Associates with data as of August 2025

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Janco’s analysis of the IT job market is based on current BLS data, hiring trends monitored by Janco, budgets for IT initiatives in companies Janco monitors, and its proprietary forecasting model.

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