IT Job Market Analysis - November 2025
BLS still closed down - Record number of layoffs in October
IT job market continues to shrink
4 million individuals are employed as IT Pros in the US
Summerlin South -NV - e-janco.com - Janco reports With the government shut down, the BLS has not published any employment data for two months in a row. The only data that we have to update our forecast for the IT job market are Janco’s proprietary database and publicly available employment data, including ADP payroll numbers. Excluded from our analysis is unemployment data provided only by the BLS. We have interviewed over 120 C-level executives to provide a base point for our forecast.
We have estimated that there continues to be a loss of approximately 1,000 jobs in the size of the IT Job Market in September and October.Janco will be publishing its full set of findings on Substack (https://itmanager.substack.com/).The CEO of Janco, M. Victor Janulaitis, said, “IT job market prospects are tied to overall US national employment -- Janco reports the IT Job market shrank by 131,200 in the last 13 months and over 179,000 in the last 24 months.” In addition, “In our travels, we have noticed an uptick in retail activity. Gas prices are lower, and the rate of inflation is around 2% versus the 9% peak several quarters back. Perhaps that is a good omen for long-term IT job market growth. Historically, over 50% of all IT jobs have been created by SMBs. As prospects for them improve, there will be more job opportunities for IT professionals.”
Janco’s CEO said, “With that as a base, we forecast minimal growth in the size of the IT Job Market in the last quarter of 2025. The IT Job Market will shrink for the third year in a row.”
Janulaitis added, “We will continue to report the BLS data; however, we are in the process of redoing our IT Job Market forecasting models to consider other public and private data.
IT Job Market Forecast
IT Job Market CY 2025
BLS data unavailable due to Democrat Party goverment shutdown.
There has been a shift in the creation of new IT Jobs - AI and economic slowing are the drivers.
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BLS Adjustments for June and July
The BLS reduced the number of jobs intinallly reported in June and July by 9,400. They can still adjust down the July number of jobs when the release the next report in October.
BLS Adjustments for May and June
The BLS reduced the number of jobs intinallly reported in May and June by 12,100. They can still adjust down these number of jobs when the release the Annual report of jobs created.
September IT Unemployment Rate - 4.5% versus National Unemployment Rate - 4.3%
Most of the unfilled positions (200,000) continue to be associated with AI, LLM, Blockchain, and OmniCommerce. IT opportunities will expand in the last two quarters of 2025. Our data shows the positions available will be in SMBs versus larger enterprises, as they prepare for the implementation of the approved federal budget and tariffs. AI is showing its impact in IT as many customer service and monitoring positions are automated. CIOs we interviewed have expressed a need to hire new staff to meet AI initiatives and the focus on productivity.”
He added, “The IT job market has continued to shrink. We now believe that is a long-term trend. The impact of the new tax laws, job creation in the US due to investments, and tariff revenues may offset it.”
He added, “There still are a limited number of IT Pros with working AI and Omni Commerce experience. They continue to be in high demand. IT pros with legacy skills in small markets, such as Nashville and Tulsa, have a difficult time finding positions. Those in large markets like Dallas and New York have more opportunities. From our conversations with HR specialists, we find that approximately 4% to 5% who are out of work are choosing to look outside of the IT field. IT Pros in the middle of their careers look at AI as a threat to their further employment.”
The CEO added, “The impact of DOGE now is being felt as many contracts for IT Professionals have been put on hold, and government IT pros do not have a clear picture of what the future holds for them. In the first two quarters of 2025, the IT job market shrank slightly – 1,200 jobs. The number of unemployed IT professionals rose to remained at 183,000. We believe that many low-skilled, legacy-skilled IT pros, or displaced IT professionals, have stopped looking for jobs in the IT sector.”
The CEO added, “According to the latest BLS data analyzed, there are now approximately 4 million jobs for IT Professionals in the US. Economic uncertainty continues to hurt overall IT hiring. Large high-tech firms continue to focus on improving bottom lines and justify investments in AI and LLM solutions.”
Historic IT Job Market Size
Janulaitis added, “Companies that provide outsourcing services and consultants are scrambling to maintain their existing contracts. There are few opportunities for outsourcers as many CEOs want to reduce costs and show they want to be in the US. Consultants who are not in the AI space are not hiring, and some are even reducing staff.” Janco’s current forecast is that the IT job market will continue to shrink. That will make that the third year in a row where there will be fewer jobs for IT Pros in a single calendar year.
Most of the unfilled positions (200,000) continue to be associated with AI, LLM, Blockchain, and OmniCommerce. IT opportunities will expand in the last two quarters of 2025. Our data shows the positions available will be in SMBs versus larger enterprises, as they prepare for the implementation of the approved federal budget and tariffs. AI is showing its impact in IT as many customer service and monitoring positions are automated. CIOs we interviewed have expressed a need to hire new staff to meet AI initiatives and the focus on productivity.”
He added, “The IT job market has continued to shrink. We now believe that is a long-term trend. The impact of the new tax laws, job creation in the US due to investments, and tariff revenues may offset it.”
Sementation of the IT Job Market
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Janco is an international consulting firm that follows issues that concern CIOs and CFOs. The firm publishes a series of IT and business Infrastructure HandiGuides® and Templates including IT Infrastructure Policies and Procedures, Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity Template, Security Template, IT Job Descriptions, and its semi-annual IT Salary Survey.
